Governing A Divided America.(Statistical Data Included)

Advice & Predictions from Seven Sages

The Moment May Be Righter Than You Think

Jonathan Rauch

So: The national electorate is evenly split, the Senate is evenly split, the House is almost evenly split. Statehouses are divided remarkably closely. Ideological liberals and conservatives have fought each other to a standstill.

Standard wisdom holds that President George W. Bush will be forced to govern from the humdrum center--where people seem interested only in dispensing prescription-drug benefits, education money, and various other pork cutlets to the middle class. So expect nothing momentous over the next few years. Me, I am not so sure. Today's doubts about miraculous reforms and bold political realignments may actually improve the odds for some lasting accomplishments. If he shrewdly descends to the occasion, George W. Bush may be just the man for the job.

After two decades in which politicians pledged grandiose reforms of our government, Washington's culture, the economy, and much else, voters in 2000 settled for relative modesty. In the Republican primary, John McCain had promised to end the reign of special interests, while Lamar Alexander said he'd cut federal regulation by half. On the Democratic side, Bill Bradley swore he'd provide health insurance to everyone and "eliminate child poverty as we know it" The voters instead went with a pair of boring incrementalists.

Then the exceptionally close general election denied either of our deradicalized parties any powerful mandate. The result: lower expectations in D.C. This is just as well.