2002 FORECAST: STORMY.(Republicans may lose more seats in 2002 elections)

While Republicans are deservedly jubilant about holding the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives for the first time in a half-century, their elation may be short-lived. A quick look at the political map for 2002 shows storm clouds ahead.

In the Senate, Republicans will be more vulnerable than Democrats in 2002 because they will have more seats at risk. Of the 33 Senate seats up two years from now, 20 are now held by Republicans, 14 by Democrats. And possible retirements further complicate matters for the GOP, since "open" seats without an incumbent are usually more competitive than seats with an incumbent. Senator Strom Thurmond, who came to the Senate in 1954, will almost certainly step aside, perhaps even before his term is up, and South Carolina's Democratic governor will likely appoint a Democrat to replace him. Another possible retirement is Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, who came to the Senate in 1970. Jesse Helms, who joined the illustrious club in 1972, won with just 53 percent of the vote his last election. Seven other Republicans won by 54 percent or less, which indicates their vulnerability.

Retaining control of the House will be a challenge for the GOP, too, because the party out of power in the White House almost always gains House seats during midterm elections. The Republicans' margin is already narrow: 221 to 211. House watchers are also predicting a record number of retirements in 2002, in part because the redistricting process that occurs after a census throws many members into unfamiliar districts. In 1992--the ...