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'Why do blacks hate us?" It's a question that has long perplexed conservatives and Republicans. They've been asking it with new intensity since November, when "compassionate conservatism" struck out with 91 percent of the black electorate. Increased black turnout helped Democrats gain Senate seats in Michigan, Washington, Florida, and Missouri.
Most Republicans recognize that they need to win more black votes. There has been no shortage of advice on how to do this. Republicans have been told to soft-pedal old issues, and to devise new ones. They have been counseled to push harder on school choice, to oppose immigration, to rethink the drug war. One Republican suggested that the party "co-opt" or even "buy" black leaders.
The multiplicity of suggestions is a sign that the party really has no idea what to do. The prevailing mood is one of resignation tinged with despair. Republicans feel they have done as much as they can, while remaining Republicans, to court blacks. They pointedly avoided campaigning against racial preferences. (Even in Florida, where they were an issue, the Republicans tried mightily to defuse it.) They found every black person they knew and put him onstage during the Republican convention. Since his election, President Bush has appointed blacks to powerful offices, met with left-wing black congressmen, and proposed welfare reforms that would direct millions of dollars to black churches. None of it seems to work.
Some Republicans are therefore tempted to surrender. Since blacks constitute only 10 percent of the electorate, they figure the party should find its votes elsewhere. But for the GOP to give up on blacks would be a mistake. For one thing, in many states blacks are a substantial and growing percentage of the electorate. In addition, blacks are among the few identifiable populations that contain more conservatives than Republicans. They should be no more out of reach for George W. Bush than blue-collar Democrats were for Ronald Reagan.
It would be a mistake, finally, because it is not in fact true that the Republicans have done everything they can to get black votes. They have neglected, for instance, to ask for them. Policy intellectuals are naturally tempted to devise programmatic responses to the party's problem with blacks: modify this position, accentuate that one. Pundits like to ponder big issues such as the effect of America's racial history on blacks' political psychology. But they're overlooking a simple, but big, part of the problem: Republicans aren't running ads that reach black voters.
Consider the case of Kansas City. We choose it not just because it's our hometown, but also because it was the second biggest market in the country for political ads in 2000-right behind St. Louis. Missouri was a swing state in the presidential race. It was also the site of hard- fought races for senator and governor. Two congressional seats were contested in the area, one on either side of the Kansas-Missouri state line. In the end, high turnout among blacks, who were 5 percent of the Missouri electorate in 1996 but 12 percent in 2000, yielded narrow Democratic victories for Bob Holden over Jim Talent (governor) and Jean Carnahan over John Ashcroft (senator).
The most popular black radio station in Kansas City is KPRS-FM, "Hot 103 Jamz." Here's a synopsis of the political ads that KPRS listeners heard during four hours of drive time on November 2, five days before the election:
Source: HighBeam Research, The Simplest 'Outreach': Ask black Americans for their votes, for...