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Only the Beginning.(new economy)(Brief Article)
How quickly things change!" exclaims Hal Varian, an economist in Silicon Valley, the nerve center of America's chip-driven New Economy. These days, every dot-bust, every deflated e-billionaire, every sign of imminent recession is knowingly reported as evidence that the New Economy is dead. In mid-January a Wall Street Journal list of hot business buzzwords dismissed the New Economy and one of its guiding lights, Intel cofounder Gordon Moore, as out of fashion. Internet guru Kevin Kelly, author of "New Rules for the New Economy," suddenly finds himself unwanted as a guest speaker. "I read requiem announcements for the New Economy every day," says Kelly from his home in Pacifica, California. "People have jumped off this bandwagon even faster than they jumped on."
It is hard to think of a time when the bandwagon was hurtling so quickly in the wrong direction. True, few economists take seriously the full canon of the New Economy gurus, who believe the computer chip and the Internet are vastly increasing human productivity, vaulting the United States into a golden age of limitless growth in which recessions will disappear and the hard trade-offs of Depression-era economic laws won't apply. Nonetheless, America has enjoyed close to 20 years of painless growth, forcing scholars to reconsider the old laws of economic gravity. The rapidly emerging consensus is that a new era is dawning.
We are finally starting to see productivity gains from the computer, which may raise (not abolish) the "speed limit" on growth, stretch the definition of full employment and dampen (not end) the business cycle. In this view, the stock bubble was but a blip in the road. And the next recession will be the first real test of the New Economy--not the last gasp.
This consensus has taken hold from Harvard to MIT and the Federal Reserve (where Alan Greenspan was an early believer) to the White House. Its most ringing expression came just two weeks ago in Bill Clinton's last annual economic report, which opens: ...
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As the United States emerges from one of the...increasing evidence that New Economy factors--including...of the slowdown. The New Economy represents a vast array...released its first State New Economy Index in 1999, it included...
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...either concept of the New Economy Discussion of the relationship...alternative concepts of the 'New Economy', and to consider...lesser extent, the United States. However, many of...different versions of the New Economy are distinguished...
Source: HighBeam Research, Only the Beginning.(new economy)(Brief Article)