TV airtime sales negotiations face a bumpy ride.

The TV airtime negotiation season is almost upon us. Will Granada be able to `stiff' Carlton? Can Channels 4 and 5 steal share? Who will be the winners and losers?

According to many in the commercial television business, this autumn's annual airtime negotiations are likely to be the most Machiavellian ever. Usually there's a pretty clear pecking order: you talk to the ITV sales houses first and, having played them off against each other and struck a deal that just about keeps everyone happy, you spend what's left with the national channels -- GMTV, Channels 4 and 5 and the satellite sales houses.

This year, though, ITV consolidation could throw the market completely out of whack. The theory was that as ITV ownership passed from three hands to two (Carlton and Granada) they would both have increased clout in the market. It didn't take much imagination to see them abusing that position.

The problem with that theory is that Carlton and Granada are now unequal players, especially on the sales side. Granada has all the plum regions while Carlton has just the two: London weekday and Central. Advertisers could seek to cover off both with judicious use of Channel 4's regional "macro" packages. They could take to Granada first, tie up the nationals and then go to Carlton last.

That would make an impact on ITV's total share of revenue. And there's another potential cloud on the horizon -- Granada only took charge of some of its new regions this week. If it hits problems bedding down the new business, or if it takes its eye off the ball in any way, that could also affect the market. Last week, Granada's share price dipped on forecasts of a slight revenue slowdown. Is there more rough water ahead?

Mick Desmond, the chief executive of Granada Enterprises, doesn't see it that way. He says: "We are very upbeat about the negotiation period. We have the London Weekend Television franchise, the northern macro and a southern crescent. We've signed Ulster [last week], which gives us another play and this week we took formal control of TSMS. The Scottish situation will hopefully be resolved soon too. We will be quickly on the road, setting our stall out clearly. It's not as if we haven't been prepared -- we've known that this [the new franchises joining the Granada portfolio] was happening since January. The TSMS people coming across know the regions in question as do many of us here. We know what we have to do and conversations have already taken place, albeit on an informal basis."

But what about the Carlton situation? "We will be selling ITV as a brand very aggressively but we will be doing it very clearly for our regions," Desmond adds. "I don't want to seem arrogant, but we have a sales job to do. It is our duty to maximise our revenues. I can't determine what people do or don't do with Carlton. I'm not going to worry about someone else's gameplan."