Online-Service Adoption Likelihood.(Polling Data)(Statistical Data Included)

This study investigates the relations between perceived television use and online access motives among those who do not presently subscribe to a commercial online service and how such relations influence the likelihood of online-service adoption. Uses and gratifications theory is utilized as the theoretical basis for examining user motives.

A random telephone sample was generated through random digits and 384 valid responses were obtained. The sample was selected from a large metropolitan area of 2 million plus population which possesses racial and ethnic diversity.

Study results suggest that user motives between TV exposure and potential online-service access are weakly correlated, as TV-use motives are largely insignificant predictors for potential online-service adoption. Implications for advertisers are explored in light of the convergence between television and online services, which continues along technological as well as content dimensions.

AS WE APPROACH THE DAWN of the digital television revolution, the convergence between television and online services continues along technological as well as content dimensions. Resulting from this inevitable transition is a further erosion of the television audience, as evidenced by the dwindling primetime rating generated by all six broadcast networks, which dipped to 42.8 percent in 1997 from 47.6 percent in 1995 (Nielsen Media Research, 1997a).

Concerns regarding this potential media substitution phenomenon have prompted expert predictions that online or PC-TV services could gradually displace the traditional ways that television services are received, due to their added interactive capabilities and highly targeted reach. These future market scenarios, although not completely speculative, seem to rest on one or both of the following assumptions: (1) television and online content is mutually substitutable, and (2) television-use motives are similar to online-service-use motives.

It is reasonable to assert that certain aspects of the online medium do emulate television content and that such emulation will rise as PC-TVs grow in popularity. However, whether audience television-use motives parallel those of online-service use remains a mystery.

This study investigates that relationship among those who do not presently subscribe to an online service--the audience segment that is being intensely courted by the online and advertising industries. Specifically, it attempts to explain whether these two sets of motives are indeed substitutable and, if so, how they each may influence the likelihood of online-service adoption.