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(From Polish News Bulletin)
In an interview for Parkiet Andrzej Slawinski, the director of the Economic Institute of the National Bank of Poland and former member of the Monetary Policy Council claims that Poland will avoid a recession also this time. The following is a summary of the interview.
First Slawinski talked about the prospects for the Polish economy in 2012. According to the latest forecast of the National Bank of Poland the most probable scenario is a 3.1pc growth of GDP. Slawinski claims that the Polish economy is exceptional in that it is still on a path of balanced growth. This allowed Poland to avoid a serious recession which affected the Eurozone following the fall of Lehman Brothers. What helps Poland a lot is variable exchange rate of the Zloty, which obviously acted as a shock absorber. Further, research shows that the Polish labor market is becoming ever more flexible. Slowing down of economic growth in 2001-2002 had a much greater impact on the growth of unemployment than the slowdown in 2009. Another thing is that unlike banks in other countries, Polish banks have no problems with portfolios of bad loans.
Slawinski claims that as it seems that the European Central Bank is making a serious effort to fight against the banking crisis, …