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Showbiz shores up: media ready for rally after 2011 turmoil.

Daily Variety

| December 22, 2011 | Goldsmith, Jill | COPYRIGHT 2009 Reed Business Information, Inc. (US). (Hide copyright information)Copyright

It's been a wild ride for markets and showbiz stocks this year as the U.S. economy threatened to tip into another recession and Europe spread gloom.

Heading into 2012 there's a glint of hope the worst may be over. But media optimism is tempered by poor "visibility" on the ad front, meaning it's hard to see beyond a day, a week or a month.

"The ad market is guilty until proven innocent," declared David Bank, a media analyst with RBC Capital Markets.

Showbiz shares lean heavily on advertising and subscriptions, which can be complicated to predict when corporations are jittery and consumers strapped for cash. Wall Streeters are surprised TV advertising has held up as well as it has, and they don't trust it. So, as they pick favorite stocks, they focus on other areas like Disney's theme parks; retransmission consent and reverse compensation at CBS; and rising affiliate fees at News Corp.'s cable networks.

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