Study poverty more than GNP.

Byline: Mahar Mangahas

WHEN IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST OLIVIER BLANchard claimed, last Aug. 18, that the recovery of the global economy has started, he was being optimistic specifically about forthcoming growth in world output (the sum of all countries Gross National Products), and not about forthcoming reductions in world poverty as well.

Probably Mr. Blanchard, like establishment economists in general, assumes that reduction in poverty automatically results from growth in GNP. For sure, he cannot quantifyindeed, no one can quantifythe short-run impact of GNP on poverty, simply because world statistics on poverty are produced in dribbles, only once every few years, whereas world figures on GNP gush out in a steady quarterly stream.

The sheer availability of the GNP data stream fostered the concentration of …