Thailand: Thai economy in 2H09; Slowing contraction, still at risk.

Section: Economy - The assessment of the latest economic data released by the Bank of Thailand (BOT) leads Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) to project that the Thai economy in 2Q09 will have continued to exhibit a steep contraction of 5.6 percent YoY, albeit less of a shrinkage than the 7.1 percent contraction of 1Q09. This signals that the Thai economy may have reached a trough in the current economic cycle during that quarter. Despite negative factors such as the April political unrest and H1N1 flu outbreak, this smaller contraction projected to take place in the Thai economy during 2Q09 is the result of the government's initial economic stimuli that has helped sustain private …