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Hidden crisis.(THE WEEK)(social security)

National Review

| May 25, 2009 | Hassett, Kevin A. | COPYRIGHT 2009 National Review, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

RAHM EMANUEL notoriously captured the spirit of Washington when he said that "you never want a serious crisis to go to waste. What I mean is that it's an opportunity to do things you could not do before."

But a little-recognized corollary has been equally important to the Obama administration: You never want to admit there is a crisis if it would require you to do something you would prefer to put off.

The nearby chart provides a case in point. We used to think that Social Security would have surpluses until 2017. Sadly, the economy has been so bad that in February of 2009 Social Security was in the red. A big reason is that workers who lose their jobs do not pay payroll taxes. The chart indicates that the Congressional Budget Office now believes that Social Security will have essentially no surplus next year.

The problem is, the assumptions that give us that scenario are far more optimistic than the assumptions required to justify, say, a $787 billion stimulus package. Indeed, the chart is almost comical in its miraculous ability to skirt negative territory. In reality, Social Security will almost ...

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