The demographic effects of Hurricane Katrina on the Mississippi gulf coast: an analysis by zip code.

Abstract

This paper provides an estimate of the effects of Hurricane Katrina on the population of 20 selected zip code areas in Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties, Mississippi, that were at or near the epicenter of Hurricane Katrina. The effects are examined by using 1990 and 2000 census data, information from a special data collection funded by the National Science Foundation, and special county-level "Katrina impact" 2006 population estimates prepared by the U. S. Census Bureau. The Cohort Change Ratio Method is applied to 1990 and 2000 census data to generate 2007 population estimates in the absence of Katrina. These estimates are then adjusted to take Katrina's effects into account. By comparing the adjusted to the unadjusted estimates an idea of the absolute and relative impact of Katrina is gained. The comparison suggests that Katrina's demographic effects are profound and not only likely to affect the 2010 census counts in these areas, but that they may persist well beyond. Given the long-lasting demographic effects of such disasters, I suggest that these methods be used in the future and provide specific recommendations on how this can be accomplished

Introduction

As noted by Chappell et al. (2007: 344), the landfall of Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast on August 29th, 2005 represented the greatest natural disaster in American history. The geographic spread of the disaster stretched 90,000 square miles, roughly the size of Great Britain. In human terms, at least 1,836 people lost their lives from Katrina while only 65 did so due to Hurricane Andrew in August of 1992 and 265 from Hurricane Camille in August of 1969 (Chappell et al., 2007: 344). Swanson et al. (2007) note that while the preceding numbers are staggering and likely in the general ballpark, they are only estimates and because of the ephemeral nature of the data and the high costs, it is not surprising that estimates rather than complete counts are made in regard to the damage from hurricanes and other large scale disasters. Unfortunately, many of these estimates are not informed by on-the-ground research, one exception to this being those developed by Swanson et al. (2007).

This paper extends the work of Swanson et al. (2007) by providing estimates of the effect of Hurricane Katrina on the populations of 20 selected zip code areas of Hancock, Harrison and Jackson counties, Mississippi. These zip codes are of interest for two reasons. First, zip codes are used by many private and public sector entities for planning (Pol and Thomas, 1997, 2000; Siegel, 2002; Thomas, 2005); and second, these 20 zip codes were at or near the epicenter of Hurricane Katrina in that they cover the Mississippi Gulf Coast from Alabama to Louisiana in an area extending north from the Gulf Coast approximately 15 miles. The general dimensions of the study area are provided in Exhibit 1.

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The demographic effects of Katrina are examined on populations in of each of the twenty zip codes displayed by county in Exhibit 2