The weight of the Sword of Damocles: a reconviction analysis of suspended sentences in Tasmania.

Suspended sentences are a widely used but controversial sentencing disposition. This article presents reconviction rates for all sentences imposed over a 2-year period in the Tasmanian Supreme Court, as well as examining different outcomes on the basis of key sentencing variables, including offence type and prior record. The results demonstrate that suspended sentences have comparatively low reconviction rates. The study examines the relative frequency and seriousness of offending, thereby overcoming a common criticism of reconviction studies that they are an 'all-or-nothing' measure, which does not take into account changes in offending patterns. The study also avoids the common error of misattributing reconviction rates to incidences of offending that occurred prior to the imposition of the relevant sentence by excluding pseudoreconvictions, and the findings indicate the extent to which pseudoreconvictions can skew reconviction results. In addition, the use of suspended sentences in combination with other orders, and the reconviction outcomes of such sentences, is analysed. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of my findings for the further use of suspended sentences, and for future research.

Keywords: suspended sentences, recidivism, pseudo-reconvictions

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Suspended sentences are currently available in all Australian jurisdictions and are a common but often controversial sentencing disposition. The so-called Sword of Damocles is said to carry 'a clear warning to the offender which he disregards at his peril' (Ashworth, 1983, p. 243). One of the core principles underpinning the use of suspended sentences is that they ate an effective deterrent because the consequences of reoffending during the period of the sentence ate known to the offender (Ancel, 1971; Ashworth, 1983; Bottoms, 1981). This article explores this proposition by examining reconviction patterns following different sentencing dispositions for all offenders convicted in the Tasmanian Supreme Court over a 2-year period. The study makes a number of methodological advances and considers the implications of my findings.

Literature Review

THE (F)UTILITY OF RECONVICTION STUDIES

Brody (1976) has observed that the 'crudest way to test the effectiveness of a sentencing measure is to determine what proportion of persons do not offend again' (p. 10), but suggests that such statistics must be interpreted with caution. The assessment of recidivism by reconviction rates has been criticised as simplistic and problematic for assessing the effectiveness of sentences (Mair, 1995), while Friendship et al. (2004) argue that there are major difficulties in using aggregate reconviction data to assess sentence effectiveness. Other common criticisms are that reconviction rates are an undercount of actual offending, are an all-or-nothing measure, are affected by changes in police and prosecution practice and do not account for severity or frequency of offence (Brody, 1976; Carcach & Leverett, 1999; Friendship, Beech, & Browne, 2002; Harper & Chitty, 2005; Lloyd, Mair, & Hough, 1994; Mears, 1998; Moxon, 1998; Shepherd & Whiting, 2006; Spicer & Glicksman, 2004).