A Coup for the Kremlin.(International Edition; GEORGIA)(Mikheil Saakashvili)

Byline: Owen Matthews and Anna Nemtsova

Georgians want better relations with Russia, which won't bend till Saakashvili goes. He may have to.

Five years ago, tens of thousands of Georgians took to the streets to overthrow a corrupt, pro-Russian government and put a bright, young, American-educated lawyer into power. It was a heady and hopeful time--not just for Georgia, but for a swath of post-Soviet countries that had gained nominal independence but were still mired in crony capitalism and political dependence on Moscow. Georgia's new leader, Mikheil Saakashvili, was "energetic, well educated --he liked to take risks," remembers Nino Burzhanadze, one of his closest allies during the Rose Revolution. "He had 100 percent support in his country and practically 100 percent support in the West --no other president in the world has ever had the chances that President Saakashvili had."

Now Saakashvili's pro-Western project, which included joining NATO, creating an open society, weeding out corruption and reforming the economy, is coming apart. In early April thousands of demonstrators gathered again in Tbilisi, this time not to support the president but to demand his resignation. They threw rabbit food at the presidential residence and called Saakashvili a coward for losing last summer's war against Russia, and said he brought disaster on Georgia's head by arrogantly confronting its big neighbor. Popular disgust with the war has become a trap for Saakashvili, with the vast majority of Georgians saying they want better relations with Russia, and Moscow saying that won't happen while Saakashvili is still in power.

That may not be much longer. Since the war ended, Saakashvili's popularity rating has slipped from 80 percent to 30 percent, and poor relations with Russia have made the economic downturn particularly painful. Three years ago, Russia began to cut off the trade in wine and agricultural goods from Georgia, and it completely stopped cross-border trade after the war, translating into a 70 percent drop in Georgian exports. Foreign investment has also plummeted, from $525 million in the second quarter of 2008 to $188 million in the fourth quarter.

Signs of Saakashvili's struggle to make good on his economic ...