South Africa Will Survive Zuma.(International Edition; POINT OF VIEW)(Jacob Zuma)

The nation's future depends not only on its leader, but on its political culture and institutions.

On April 6, South African prosecutors dropped all corruption charges against the country's president-in-waiting, African National Congress leader Jacob Zuma. With elections coming this week, skeptics saw the move as a sign that the courts had been cowed by a demagogic strongman and that the country's fragile democracy was crumbling.

There are plenty of reasons to fear a Zuma presidency: he surrounds himself with followers who vow to kill on his behalf, threatens to diminish the role of the constitutional court, has been linked to a corrupt financial adviser and once declared that he was able to ward off AIDS from a woman he was accused of raping by taking a shower. This is a far cry from the days of Nelson Mandela, when South Africa's leader commanded the respect of the world.

Zuma also seems unable to articulate a clear vision. He tells each constituency what it wants to hear: township dwellers will get running water and new homes; bankers can expect a steady flow of foreign investment; and the Afrikaners (against whom he once waged war) are the only "true" white South Africans.

The fact that the ANC split late last year, with many leaders leaving for a new party, the Congress of the People (COPE), has further worried investors, who fear that the highly regarded finance minister, Trevor Manuel, and central bank governor, Tito Mboweni, might leave office if Zuma wins, prompting massive capital flight. Some critics fear South Africa could go the way of Zimbabwe, crippled by economic mismanagement, hyperinflation and tyrannical government.

All of these fears are overblown. South Africa's future depends not only on its leader but on the constraints he faces and on the strength of its political culture and institutions. Zuma can't rule as he wishes: he will likely have to break his populist promises to the poor, for example, because the global financial crisis has squeezed the economy, and the government can't finance more debt. At the same time, South Africa is doing relatively well compared to other emerging markets, and Zuma won't jeopardize this by jettisoning the personnel and policies that have made it the free-market business hub of the continent, argues economist Raymond Parsons.

Then there's the ANC, which has generally shown a commitment to the rule of law. For years, it has had the votes to change the Constitution without opposition support but hasn't done so. Instead ...