Can the two-state solution be salvaged?(Symposium: Can the Two-State Solution be Salvaged?)

The following is an edited transcript of the fifty-fifth in a series of Capitol Hill conferences convened by the Middle East Policy Council The meeting was held on Friday, January 16, 2009, with Chas. W. Freeman, Jr., presiding.

CHAS W. FREEMAN, JR.: president, Middle East Policy Council

Among today's pressing issues is the question of peace between Israel and its neighbors. Six years ago in April, the Middle East Policy Council dedicated a conference to the question of whether the two-state solution was viable or not. At the time, it was a topic no one was really willing to address, and I must say the panelists found it too difficult to confront directly. Yet, even then, there was reason to doubt whether the two-state solution was achievable. This morning we're conducting a conference on whether the two-state solution can be salvaged. The change of topics does not represent progress. In the interim, the process of colonialization of Palestinian lands by Israelis, or Jewish immigrants from abroad, as the case may be, and the occupation and its brutality have continued. We've come to a situation in which there is very little land left for a state; there's no agreed framework anymore for a discussion of two states; and, in fact, there is no one on the Palestinian side with whom Israel is prepared to talk who has the authority to make a deal.

Meanwhile, the definition of the two-state solution continues to slide, as we were reminded by Tzipi Livni, who declared that one of the merits of a two-state solution is that it would allow Israeli Arabs to be transferred to an independent Palestine and stripped of their Israeli citizenship. This doesn't speak well of the direction of Israeli politics or the hope for this solution. So President-elect Obama, in a few days when he takes office, will inherit a situation in which there's no clear diplomatic process, and, though Israel's existence as a military power in the region is well understood and recognized, its legitimacy as a country is not accepted. In many respects, Israel is not part of the Middle East at all--not politically, not economically and not culturally.

For Israel, clearly, the long-term issue is how to achieve acceptance of its existence from its neighbors, whether they believe Israel's coming into existence was right or wrong. That remains an unattained objective. For Palestinians, aspirations for self-determination remain unfulfilled. It's not clear yet what the long-term effects of the disgusting scenes in Gaza will be, but the record suggests that it's probably likely to strengthen hardliners on the Palestinian side rather than empower those prepared to work with Israel.

So President Obama will confront a worsening situation in a region where the credibility of the United States, Israel and the Palestinian leadership, divided as it is, is close to zero, and most people do not see the two-state solution as viable. In these circumstances, the question of whether that solution can be salvaged is very appropriate and timely. If it isn't salvaged, the consequences for Israel, the Palestinians and the United States are grave indeed.

WILLIAM B. QUANDT: professor of politics, University of Virginia