Fading To Black.(International Edition; WORLD AFFAIRS)(Moldova)

Byline: Owen Matthews

Moldova's would-be color revolution fails. Chalk one up for the Kremlin.

Seen from the Kremlin, the scenes of protesters overrunning Moldova's parliament and ransacking its president's office looked chillingly familiar. More than five years ago, young pro-Western protesters toppled Moscow-friendly regimes in Georgia and Ukraine. Those "color" revolutions marked the nadir of Russia's power in the region and became the cornerstone of Kremlin policy ever after. At home, Moscow stamped out foreign-funded NGOs, abolished local elections and concocted youth groups to counter the possibility of anything similar happening inside Russia. Abroad, the Kremlin's priority has been asserting its right to a sphere of influence and fighting back the tide of Western influence. The outcome of Moldova's latest unrest, then, is about much more than a disputed election: it's a key test of both Russia's soft and hard power in the region.

The unrest in Chisinau erupted last week as students--many summoned by messages on Facebook and Twitter--gathered in the Moldovan capital's central square to protest the ruling Communist Party's suspiciously large electoral victory a few days earlier. Protesters set fire to government buildings, built barricades and some waved Romanian flags--an uncomfortable reminder that two thirds of the country is composed of ethnic Romanians and some wish to reunite with the neighbor, from which they split in 1940. Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin called the unrest "an attempted coup d'etat" and accused Romania, a NATO and European Union member, of fomenting the protests. Heavy-handed police quickly restored order after arresting more than 200 people.

What's important about the abortive "Twitter Revolution" is what it revealed about Russia's ability to project power and protect friends like Voronin. For at least four years, Moscow has mounted a campaign to woo Voronin away from the EU and NATO with offers of subsidized gas and closer economic ties. The charm offensive seems to have paid off. Even though European trade accounted for 51 percent of Moldova's economy last year, compared with just 20 percent with Russia, Voronin pointedly refused to join Brussels's Eastern Partnership program in January, calling it "a plot to surround Russia."

Russia also scored a quiet victory against the EU last month over the breakaway republic of Transdniestria, a ...