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WHEN JIABAO was confident, even smug, at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. The Chinese premier relished criticizing America's "unsustainable model of development" and touting his own country's prospects. He was not alone in his views. The dominant narrative about the global economic crisis is that it will hasten American decline and accelerate Chinese ascendancy; some now speak of a "Beijing consensus." This view is mistaken, and the opposite is more likely to be true: No national economy is more vulnerable in the current crisis than China's.
The crisis will be especially deep and unusually long. We experienced a bubble of immense proportions, and ...