House Of Cards.(The Talk of the Town)(credit card companies and consumers who are unable to pay their bills)(Column)

In tough times, businesses will do nearly anything to get new customers--look at the big markdowns at retailers and the cheap financing at auto dealerships. But there is an exception to the rule: these days, credit-card companies are trying to get rid of customers. They're shutting down accounts, shrinking credit lines, and, in some cases, actually paying customers to go away. American Express recently offered some of its customers three hundred dollars if they would pay off their balance and close their account.

This is a pretty startling change of direction for the lords of plastic. For decades, they've been deluging Americans with come-ons (in 2007, 5.2 billion offers for new cards were sent out), so much so that, as of 2006, there were nearly 1.5 billion charge cards in circulation. And these cards did not go unused: between 2000 and 2006, even as Americans' real income was essentially stagnant and their savings rate negligible, credit-card borrowing rose by about thirty per cent. Our willingness to spend beyond our means served the credit-card companies well: their profits jumped forty-five per cent between 2003 and 2008. But while making borrowing easier boosted the companies' profits, it also increased the risks they faced, risks that started to hit home once the economic slowdown began. According to Fitch Ratings, credit-card chargeoffs--debts that companies determine they will not be able to collect--rose to almost 7.5 per cent in December, up forty per cent from a year earlier. And, as unemployment continues to rise, so, too, will the number of people who are unable to pay their bills.

It's little wonder, then, that credit-card companies are now scrambling to shed the customers they think are most likely to default, and to limit the amount that others can spend. In effect, they're trying to follow the advice given by Larry Selden and Geoffrey Colvin in a book called "Angel Customers & Demon Customers." Not all customers are equal, it turns out: some are tremendously profitable, while others, like the guy who calls customer service six times a day to check his account balance, cost more than they're worth. To boost profits, you must cultivate the angels and protect yourself against the demons.

That sounds easy enough. But credit-card companies have created a strange business, in which there's a fine line between good and bad customers. Their best customers aren't those who dutifully pay off their balance every month; instead, they're the ones who charge a lot and pay only a little every month, carrying a sizable balance and racking up interest charges and late fees. These are the "revolvers," and the credit-card business feeds on them. Credit-card companies don't necessarily want revolvers to pay off their debts; if they did, there'd be no interest or fees to collect. They want their loans to be, in the words of a banking regulator, "a perpetual earning asset." And they've ...