Defining Victory Down.(International Edition; POINT OF VIEW)(U.S. and Afghanistan foreign relations)

Transforming Afghanistan will only create a backlash; best to focus on containing terrorists.

President Barack Obama's decision to send 17,000 more troops to Afghanistan will push the United States deeper into a quagmire, since the mission is undefined, the U.S. economy is spiraling downward and America's NATO allies won't send more combat forces. Moreover, the proposition that more firepower will roll back the Taliban is dubious. There will be 60,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan by year's end, and even with help from the Afghan National Army and the International Security Force--most of whose members are not engaged in fighting--

that is not enough to cover a nation of 33 million people, spread out over 647,500 square kilometers. At the post-surge peak in Iraq, there were 140,000 U.S. troops trying to secure a smaller population of 28 million, in an area only two thirds as large. In Kosovo, the multinational coalition numbered 50,000 at its height; Afghanistan's population is 16 times bigger and its area is 60 times larger.

The force-to-space ratio problem is so skewed that the generals will surely call for more troops to combat an insurgency that is active in almost every part of Afghanistan and, unlike its Iraqi counterpart, has sanctuaries and collaborators next door.

Moreover, stepping up ground operations and airstrikes will inevitably kill more Afghan civilians. That will increase Afghans' substantial outrage and benefit the Taliban, despite its policy of deliberately staging attacks designed to increase civilian casualties. Hitting sanctuaries of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistan with UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) will also further enrage Pakistanis, who see such attacks as a violation of their sovereignty and likely to strengthen extremists.

What's needed, as President Obama himself has noted, is a political settlement. Here is a six-part plan he should consider.

* Announce that Washington does not seek permanent bases in Afghanistan and will depart in stages once there is a negotiated settlement. This declaration would counter the Taliban's claims that the United States wants to occupy Afghanistan long-term.