The Plot Against The Castros.(International Edition; POINT OF VIEW)(coup against Fidel Castro and Raul Castro)

Two of Cuba's star politicians seem to have been a part of a conspiracy or a coup to overthrow Raol Castro

For years, two tidbits of conventional wisdom have dominated debates among Cubanologists (a tropical subspecies of former Kremlinologists). First, that Deputy Prime Minister and economic czar Carlos Lage has been in charge of running the island economy since the early '90s, and, despite differences of opinion regarding his performance, was seen as one of the most likely successors to Fidel Castro's brother and successor, Raol. Second, that Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque was not only in charge of the international relations Fidel Castro took increasingly less interest in, but that he was something of a favorite son. Most observers, including several Latin American ex-presidents close to Castro, saw him as the heir apparent, once the caudillo's brother passed from the scene. So Raol's decision to dump the two stars a fortnight ago is a major event in Cuba, and unlike previous purges, this one is clearly linked to Fidel Castro's succession, and may tell us a great deal about what lies ahead.

The problem, of course, is that, as in the Soviet Union when Stalin died, or in China after Mao's death, we don't really know what is going on. Yet there are solid reasons to believe that something along the following lines took place: for at least a month or so, Lage, Perez Roque and others were apparently involved in a conspiracy, betrayal, coup or whatever term one prefers, to overthrow or displace Raol from his position. In this endeavor, they recruited--or were recruited by--Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, who in turn tried to enlist the support of other Latin American leaders, starting with Leonel Fernandez of the Dominican Republic, who refused to get involved.

Their reasons for wishing to unseat Raul were mainly turf and power, but they also feared that the leader was beginning to feel threatened by the reaction of the Cuban people to excessive economic and social deprivation, and after his brother's demise would be unable to control the flow of events. Consequently, he would accept a series of economic and political reforms to normalize relations with the United States, knowing full well that therein lay the only option for immediate improvement in Cubans' lives. They believed this to be a betrayal of the revolution, and the beginning of the end of its survival.

This would represent the latest of many anti-Castro intrigues since 1959. As usual, Castro (Raol this time; before, both brothers) detected the plot almost before the plotters themselves. Raol took the evidence collected by military intelligence to his ailing brother, and forced him to ...