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Byline: Owen Matthews; With Anna Nemtsova in Minsk
The economic crisis is starting to help Russia gain power in its near abroad. The West is fighting back.
Russia is crumbling amid the economic crisis, but for its leaders there is a geopolitical upside. For years they have talked of creating "a new European architecture" in which Moscow would maintain hegemony over its near abroad, principally the now independent countries of the former Soviet Union. Now the Kremlin is seizing opportunities to bring that dream closer to reality. Still relatively better off than many in Eastern Europe--the Russian economy is set to shrink by 2 percent, compared with a hit of up to 10 percent in Ukraine--Moscow is moving fast to push that advantage, lending money and offering loans to old allies abroad.
That policy is starting to bear fruit. For the first time in a generation, Russia is starting to regain influence in the region. Last month Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko signed an agreement to allow Moscow to station antimissile defenses in his country, after signing up for a $2 billion loan from the Kremlin. Also last month, after Russia offered $2 billion in loans, Kyrgyzstan announced it would be kicking the United States out of the Manas Air Base, a key supply point for NATO troops in Afghanistan. The Kremlin has also floated the idea of setting up a development bank for former Soviet states, largely funded by Moscow. And in January President Dmitry Medvedev launched plans to revive the old Commonwealth of Independent States by creating a military rapid-reaction force.
The European Union is pushing back with its own strategy. After Russia invaded the Georgian territory of South Ossetia in August, Brussels created the Eastern Partnership Program, designed to counter Russian expansionism. Its goal was to engage with the neighbor states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine by easing travel and trade. Last week the EU announced it would include Belarus in the partnership, and Javier Solana, the EU's representative for foreign and security policy, visited Minsk to offer Lukashenko [euro]350 million in aid, as well as an offer to ease visa restrictions.
No one is asking the Eastern Partnership members to choose sides; indeed, none can afford to cut off either Russia or the EU. But several are gravitating more ...
Source: HighBeam Research, Pulled From All Sides.(International Edition; EUROPE)