How Close Is Iran to a Bomb?(International Edition; THE NUCLEAR BALANCE)(Iran's nuclear capacity)

Byline: Christopher Dickey

Iran now has enough low-enriched uranium to make one atomic bomb--at least theoretically. Independent analysts say that became clear after the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency issued its latest inspection report on Feb. 19, revealing the presence of 1,010 kilograms of the material Washington and the Europeans hoped would never exist.

It's a grim milestone on the road to nuclear perdition; but, then, Iran has passed so many of those in the last five years. And many, like this one, were not quite as dramatic as initial reports implied. U.N. inspectors quickly downplayed stories that they'd not only underestimated the quantities in earlier reports, but they might even have been deceived. Sources close to the IAEA also suggested that it would take about 50 percent more of the low-enriched stuff to process enough high-enriched stuff to make a bomb (a target that could be reached later this year). And in any case, the threat is hypothetical: the potential fuel for one device does not a nuclear power make. The question of whether Tehran moves to arm itself with nukes today, tomorrow, next year, next decade or ever remains open. Indeed, the Iranians say they have no such intentions; they're processing the uranium for future power plants like the one at Bushehr that was fired up in a trial run last week.

Is there any red line Iran may hesitate to cross? The last big one--so big it could start a war--is what's known as "breakout": effectively renouncing the Nuclear ...