Predicting performance of MBA students: comparing the part-time MBA program and the one-year program.(Master of Business Administration students)(Report)

While predictor variables for success in MBA programs vary between schools, are they different within the same business school? At an AACSB-accredited school, although the curriculum and professors are essentially the same between the One-Year MBA and Part-Time MBA programs, the significant factors to predict success in each program are not. Results indicate significant factors to predict graduate performance for a One-Year MBA program include the GMAT-Verbal, undergraduate grade point average, and a Canadian factor. While the part-time program significant factors include GMAT-Verbal and undergraduate grade point average, they also include GMAT-Quantitative and age. These results favor using slightly different entrance criteria for each program, and the suggestion for faculty to consider the educational process differences between the two programs.

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Graduate business programs continue to seek admission criteria that predict academic success. Studies indicate the need for each MBA program to individually determine the relationship among predictor variables and graduate level performance in its program [Wright and Palmer, 1997]; however, does the same curriculum delivered in a different framework require different predictor variables? Are there significant differences at the same school between a full-time MBA program and a part-time, evening program to warrant different entrance criteria? If the curriculum content and delivery process are the same, should the same incoming factors be considered for admission into each respective program or are there potentially other process differences that exist? In general, if both programs are delivered by the same professors that use similar materials and testing to deliver courses, do graduates achieve the same outcome level? These questions form the basis for our study: comparison of predictability for two MBA programs in the same school--a One-Year MBA program and a traditional, Part-Time, evening MBA program.

Literature Review

Business admissions use different processes ranging from review of undergraduate grade point average (GPA); transcript analysis that reviews the type of courses taken, trends and progress over time; level of analytical and quantitative skill required in current and past professions; recommendations; and the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT). Relevant admission factors to executive, full and Part-Time MBA programs around the world have been researched; however, the only conclusion that can be agreed upon is that GMAT and undergraduate GPA are significant factors to predicting MBA performance as measured by the graduate GPA [Wright & Palmer, 1994; Braunstein, 2002; Hecht et al., 1989; McClure et al., 1986; Paolillo, 1982; Wright and Palmer, 1997; Sireci & Talento-Miller, 2006]. Predictability, with only GMAT and undergraduate GPA as factors, is typically less than 19% of the graduate GPA [Wilson and Hardgrave, 1995], but when additional factors are considered, predictability as high as 36% for an Executive MBA program at Tulane in New Orleans, Louisiana has been reported [Arnold, Chakravarty and Balakrishnan, 1996]. Some studies favor GMAT as the stronger predictor over undergraduate GPA [Carver and King, 1994], while others favor undergraduate GPA as the stronger predictor over the GMAT [Yang and Lu, 2001]. In yet another study, the Graduate Records Exam (GRE) is a better predictor of performance than GMAT [Nilsson, 1995].

Other predictor variables are significant in some studies, but the results are not always replicated in others. The majority of studies focus on predicting exiting graduate GPA, although some attempt to model the first year performance. While GMAT and undergraduate GPA are always included in the models, other factors, such as GMAT--Verbal percentage, GMAT-Quantitative percentage, Junior/Senior GPA, length of time out of school, gender, age, undergraduate major, undergraduate institution, undergraduate major, gender, and work experience, have been tested and yield varying results as discussed below [Braunstein, 2002; Carver, Jr. and King, 1994; Fisher and Resnick, 1990; Hecht et al., 1989; McClure et al., 1986; Paolillo, 1982; Remus and Wong, 1982; Sobol, 1984; Wilson and Hardgrave, 1995; Wright and Palmer, 1997]. Handling of students dismissed or who left the program, and current students versus graduates differ between the studies.

As discussed, the total GMAT score has proven to be a valid predictor variable across different types of MBA programs and around the world. In the Executive MBA Program at Tulane, GMAT is the best single indicator, but qualitative factors, such as work experience, motivation and business success, enhance the predictive ability of the model [Arnold et al., 1996]. Total GMAT score is a predictor variable not only in US business schools, but also at American MBA programs around the world [Koys, 2005]. One study found that GMAT is a better predictor of performance for full-time students over Part-Time [Paolillo, 1982], and GMAT scores have higher correlation with graduate GPA than undergraduate GPA [Hoeffer & Gould, 2000]. The jury is still out on whether the GMAT is biased. In one study, GMAT scores were not statistically significant based upon race/ethnicity and sex [Sireci & Talento-Miller, 2006]; however, in another study, the GMAT was biased against women, but had no effect upon the women's graduate performance [Braunstein, 2006]. In yet another study, findings suggest that the total GMAT score, and the associated verbal and quantitative component scores, decline with a person's age and time since the person's last academic degree [Hecht et al., 1989].