Defense budgeting challenges: uncertainty and unpredictability.(contemporary issues)(Report)

Introduction

Of all enemies to public liberty war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes ... known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few ... no nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.

--James Madison, Political Observations, 1795 (1)

Does the Department of Defense have adequate funding to meet its requirements? Does it have what it needs to defend the interests of the United States (US)? Does the defense budget need to increase, or can the Department accomplish the National Military Strategy with less? Finally, what threats are driving defense budgets today and what type of military force is required?

On the surface, these questions seem easy to answer, but in reality, they are quite difficult. They are difficult because of the uncertain and unpredictable environment in which today's Department of Defense operates. The comfort days of the Cold War, where the United States required a large conventional force to deter a major state actor, are long gone. Currently, no strong nation state threatens the United States. Will this remain true in the future, or will an emerging power, such as China, grow to threaten US interests and those of its allies? Will the United States continue to face irregular warfare threats from weak or failed states, terrorists, or other nonstate actors? Will the successes of current terrorist groups embolden others to do the same, and what kind of military force is required to meet these uncertainties? While these questions will ultimately drive current and future defense budgets, they are only part of the equation.