Population growth and sustainability: Canadian considerations.(IDEAS)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to briefly chart how Canada's population has grown and will continue to grow well into the 21st century. In so doing, we shall place this demographic increase into a broader international context by also considering U.N. projections at the world level. Of particular interest is the issue of environmental sustainability, both in Canada and for the planet. The world has been fixated on economic growth, but international conferences have concluded that we must turn from growth to sustainability as a primary objective. At the world level, there is little disagreement that slower population growth is best, reaching a maximum size as soon as possible. This paper considers Canada's projected demographic growth from this broader perspective. As natural increase moves toward zero, Canada has the advantage of maintaining population growth through immigration; that is, without involving growth of the total population at the world level. Yet without a more explicit focus on the relationship between population and the environment, demographers are not particularly well situated in answering a fundamental question that continues to remain largely unanswered in Canadian policy circles: What would be a sustainable level of population for Canada, considering not only issues relating to quality of life and economic well being, but also the carrying capacity of the Canadian environment, the need for biodiversity and the preservation of wilderness areas?

Le but des auteurs de cet article est d'illustrer brievement comment la population du Canada a augmente et continuera de le faire pendant une bonne partie du 21e siecle. Cette croissance est ensuite mise en perspective dans un plus vaste contexte international en considerant aussi les projections mondiales telles que determinees par I'ONU. La question de la perennite de I'environnement au Canada et sur toute la planete est I'un des enjeux importants traites dans cet article. L'obsession du monde pour la croissance economique se confronte aux conclusions des conferences internationales qui etablissent que le developpement durable doit etre I'objectif prioritaire. Peu de voix s'elevent dans le monde contre le fait qu'une augmentation lente de la population est souhaitable, et qu'elle doive atteindre sa taille maximale le plus rapidement possible. La projection de la croissance demographique du Canada est traitee par les auteurs dans cette perspective plus vaste. Comme la croissance demographique naturelle du Canada se rapproche du point zero, le pays a I'avantage de maintenir sa croissance demographique par I'immigration; ce qui par consequent, n'augmente pas la population totale de la planete. Jusqu'a maintenant, les demographes n'ont pas su focaliser leur approche de facon precise sur le rapport entre la taille de la population et I'environnement et sont done un peu mal positionnes pour repondre a une question fondamentale qui reste un mystere dans les spheres politiques canadiennes: quel serait le niveau de population durable souhaitable pour le Canada, en considerant non seulement les enjeux de niveau de vie et d'economie viable, mais aussi la capacite de I'environnement canadien, la necessite de preserver la biodiversite et la conservation de regions sauvages?

Keywords

Population growth, population projections, environmental sustainabillity, Canada

Introduction

The purpose of this paper is to briefly chart how Canada's population has grown and will continue to grow through to 2017 and beyond. In so doing, we shall place this demographic increase into a broader international context by also considering U.N. projections at the world level. Of particular interest is the issue of environmental sustainability, both in Canada and for the planet. There are many challenges associated with accommodating larger numbers without seriously compromising the well-being of future generations.