Israel Tanked in Lebanon, But Could Still Win Big in Gaza.(International Edition; THE MIDDLE EAST)

Byline: Adam B. Kushner

As Israel's operation in Gaza extends into week four, critics have begun to compare the assault on Hamas to the messy 2006 war on Hizbullah in Lebanon. Israel's "massive retaliation" against Hamas rocket attacks is "bound to fail," wrote Steve Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, shortly after the conflict began. But Lebanon was not an unqualified failure, and Gaza could yet furnish Israel with a victory.

The 2006 war was handled badly. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert sent the unprepared Army into southern Lebanon with the aim of rooting out Hizbullah, and ending its rocket attacks. But there was no clear plan of attack, little intelligence about munitions depots, weak knowledge of the countryside and strong local support for the enemy. Hizbullah, by surviving, was able to claim victory. Yet Israel did manage to stop the rocket attacks--and Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah later admitted that, had he known how fiercely Israel would retaliate, he never would have started the fight. The conventional view, that the war undermined the deterrent effect of the Israeli Army, ignores what Hizbullah is doing now. Lobbing only verbal attacks, it's disclaimed responsibility for the few rockets fired at Israel from its territory.

Jerusalem has also shown that it learned from its mistakes in 2006 by not declaring its intent to topple Hamas, ...