Indigenous population data for evaluation and performance measurement: a cautionary note.

Abstract: I outline the status of population census counts for Indigenous peoples, identifying information on Indigenous births and deaths, and internal migration estimates. I comment on the 'experimental' Indigenous population projections and question the rationale for having two sets of projections. Program managers and evaluators need to be mindful of limitations of the data when using these projections for monitoring, evaluating and measuring Indigenous programs.

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Information about a country's population, growth, characteristics, living conditions, spatial distribution and physical resources is vital for rational policy formulation, planning, monitoring and evaluations. The collection and analysis of trends in population size and the components of population growth (births, deaths and migration), along with the assessment of future size and trends, constitute a fundamental part of policy-related activities. A population projection (1) provides estimates of the most likely trends in future population size, distributions and functional age groups: school-going age, working age, reproductive age and retirement age. Projections of population for countries, regions and special population groups within countries are usually made by statistical agencies on a regular basis.

For a long time the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has compiled population projections by age and sex at a sub-state level, as well as for each state, territory and for Australia as a whole. These are regularly updated using the latest population census counts and new information on the components of population growth. Australia has a well-established and reliable census and vital registration systems that are used for projecting the population for the country as a whole and its key sub-national areas. However, the compilation of separate official population projections for the Indigenous population commenced only recently with the 1996 census. These projections were completely revised when detailed data from the 2001 census became available.

The available data on population, births and deaths for Indigenous Australians are far from complete. Because of the lack of reliable information on population size and components of Indigenous population growth, the ABS is compelled to use projection methodologies that differ from those used for the total population projections. The demographic estimates used for compiling Indigenous population projections are made by non-standard methods and these are termed experimental by the ABS.

Here I outline the status of the Indigenous population census counts and data to assess their components of population growth compared to the demographic data available for mainstream population projections. I also comment on the compilation of experimental population projections. Planners, program managers and evaluators need to be aware of the limitations of the underlying data when using experimental projections for monitoring, evaluating and measuring outcomes of Indigenous programs.

Australian population projections