The year ahead for ... creative agencies.(economic condition of advertising agencies)

Nigel Bogle explains how a positive approach can see agencies through the economic gloom.

This is the third recession I have been through since we started Bartle Bogle Hegarty, but what makes this one very different to the others is the extent of uncertainty. Things have happened in the past few months that one would not have dreamed possible a year ago and I suspect there are more surprises on the way.

So, in looking ahead to 2009 and seeking to predict what life will be like for the advertising industry, it is hard to be precise. We know that consumer confidence is at its lowest level since NOP first measured it 34 years ago. We also know that there is no longer a robust correlation between economic indicators (such as company profits, consumer spending and GDP) and advertising expenditure in the UK, so looking in the rear-view mirror offers no certainty of the journey ahead.

What we do know is that volatility in consumer and economic confidence is going to impact directly on our business. Our clients will be looking for efficiencies, not least in their agency relationships. Just how tough it will get and for how long is hard to predict. It is often said that the best way to predict the future is to invent it and I think this is going to hold true for our industry in the years ahead.

Uncertainty is debilitating. It leads to anxiety, which can lead to a loss of confidence. This, in turn, can lead to panic, and the effect of panic, as we have already seen, can have catastrophic effects. The more we think recession, the more we get recession.

In my experience, confidence is a prerequisite for any successful business, but agencies in particular run on confidence and an unconfident agency will never perform at its best. It follows, therefore, that the answers to how best the industry manages its way through the next 12 months and beyond are first and foremost about mindset. So much of what is happening out there we have no control over, so we need to focus on the things that we can influence positively.

Thus, I feel the prime responsibility of agency management in these turbulent times is to instil a sense of certainty, positivity and confidence into the hearts and minds of staff and clients. This may seem a tall order when doom and gloom surrounds us daily, and I do not claim to have the blueprint for riding out recession, but I can share some principles that could be of use in helping navigate a way forward.