The year ahead for ... marketing.(forecasting of marketing industry )

Richard Hodgson predicts staying in will become the new going out and those marketers who speak directly to consumers will reap the rewards.

There is no doubt that 2009 is going to test the mettle and creativity of marketers everywhere.

Our sector's biggest focus will be on driving food volumes as, despite a growing population, we've seen them decline during 2008. The biggest driver of this decline is a new reluctance among the public to waste food in what has been called a 'return to frugality', although I think that label overstates the case.

In my opinion, this baulking at waste stems from consumers being much more aware of what they're spending in uncertain economic times. This will become even more pronounced now we've come out of Christmas celebrations to face higher numbers of business failures, rising unemployment and further sharp falls in house prices.

Operating in the food sector puts supermarkets in a relatively strong position, but there are still big challenges at the quality end of the spectrum; customers may choose to trade down and even those customers who don't have to trade down may feel peer pressure to do so in the face of more austere public opinion.

This is why one of our marketing 'must dos' is to continue to drive home the message that shopping at premium stores isn't decadent, or excessive or frivolous. It is, in fact, very sensible because you are highly likely to enjoy every product you buy.

Earlier, I said that the phrase 'a return to frugality' was overstating the case, and I do believe that. However, I am convinced that what we are seeing is the emergence of a more discerning nation, one where the idea that 'you get what you pay for' has new currency.