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The government will keep growth above 8 percent next year, but we are in the middle of a tsunami that could last into 2010.
The industrial and commercial bank of china has broken lots of records. In 2006 the bank went public in what became the world's largest IPO ($22 billion). After aggressive expansion at home and abroad, ICBC is now the largest commercial lender in China and among the world's biggest financial institutions. Last week, in the midst of the Sino-U.S. Strategic Economic Dialogue, ICBC's chairman Jiang Jianqing met with NEWSWEEK's Rana Foroohar, Melinda Liu and Mary Hennock to discuss the economic future of China and the world. Excerpts:
NEWSWEEK: Is the current economic slowdown in China just cyclical, or are the days of double-digit growth finally over?
Jiang: For three decades, China has grown over 10 percent a year. It seems that the rest of the world has gotten used to this speed. Right now, we're in the midst of a historic crisis, and there's no doubt we'll be affected. I believe the government will be able to keep growth above 8 percent next year. And I don't think the days of double-digit growth are over for good. But we are in the middle of a tsunami, and it could last into 2009 and 2010.
There are some Western economists who feel that China's fiscal-stimulus plan doesn't address the issue of domestic consumption aggressively enough. What more could be done?
I think the plan will work, but it was only announced a few weeks ago, and it needs time to take effect. In particular, there are a lot of very large infrastructure projects that will take time. But China is well equipped to organize and manage these types of large-scale projects.
How would you compare and contrast the 1998 crisis to today's situation?
Source: HighBeam Research, 'We Will Not Let Go of Reform'.(International Edition; THE LAST...