Rule By The Dead.(International Edition; North Korea)

Byline: Christian Caryl and B.J. Lee

North Korea's dictator may be ailing, but don't hope for change soon.

In 1994, the future looked dark for North Korea. The collapse of Soviet communism had eliminated much of itsoutside support, its people were starving and its economy was imploding. When the country's leader, Kim Il Sung, died, many predicted his regime would soon follow. Kim Jong Il, his heir, looked like a lightweight who would be unable to hold things together.

The pundits were wrong, of course, and 14 years later Kim is still around. In what condition, however, has been a guessing game since August, when, according to Japanese and South Korean officials, a stroke partly incapacitated the 66-year-old Dear Leader. Now uncertainty about his health and his failure to appoint a successor has spurred another round of speculation about what comes next. Again, experts are predicting the regime's collapse. Surely the end of the Kim dynasty will bring radical change to the land.

Or will it? It turns out that few hardened Korea watchers expect the Hermit Kingdom to transform itself soon, even if Kim dies. Moon Jong In, a former adviser to two South Korean presidents and a professor at Seoul's Yonsei University, argues that "North Korea is run by a system, not a person." Moon should know, since he attended the 2000 and 2007 North-South summits and has met most of Kim's entourage. He doesn't dispute that Kim is the supreme leader but is convinced that Kim's underlings will keep the place running smoothly if their boss expires. Moon argues that Kim's confederates, contrary to widespread belief, are savvy, well informed--"they read the South Korean newspapers more than their own"--and entirely capable of adapting.

What's more, say Moon and others, North Korea's elite are well aware of what could happen to them if they lose control. Back in the 1990s, Kim underscored this point by showing them footage of executed Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, and Kim's entourage is determined to prevent a similar shakeup. This makes it likely that when their boss does die, they will band together in some form of collective leadership, perhaps with one of Kim's sons as a figurehead. (None of the three--Kim Jong Nam, 37, Kim Jong Chol, 27, and Kim Jong Woon, 24--has emerged as a power in his own right.) The security forces, including the overlapping and antagonistic secret-police branches, would probably help keep the lid on. Those forces are run by 62-year-old Chang Song Taek, another front runner who is the husband of ...