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Frustrated by illogical poll analysis, baseball statistician Nate Silver started modeling data on his Web site, FiveThirtyEight.com. He spoke to Adam B. Kushner last week.
How do you design your model?
A lot is based on intuition. We look at how a pollster has done in the past, whether a state leans left or right, who lives there, how things usually change leading up to the election. There's no one principle, except to be meticulous and thoughtful.
Which polls are reliable?
Good ones are boutique firms like SurveyUSA or Rasmussen Reports. Gallup doesn't have a good record. ...
Source: HighBeam Research, Numbers Never Lie.(International Edition; FAST CHAT)(Nate Silver of...