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Numbers Never Lie.(International Edition; FAST CHAT)(Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com)(Interview)(Brief article)

Newsweek International

| November 17, 2008 | COPYRIGHT 2008 Newsweek, Inc. All rights reserved. Any reuse, distribution or alteration without express written permission of Newsweek is prohibited. For permission: www.newsweek.com. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Frustrated by illogical poll analysis, baseball statistician Nate Silver started modeling data on his Web site, FiveThirtyEight.com. He spoke to Adam B. Kushner last week.

How do you design your model?

A lot is based on intuition. We look at how a pollster has done in the past, whether a state leans left or right, who lives there, how things usually change leading up to the election. There's no one principle, except to be meticulous and thoughtful.

Which polls are reliable?

Good ones are boutique firms like SurveyUSA or Rasmussen Reports. Gallup doesn't have a good record. ...

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