'This Makes No Sense'.(Business; WORLD BUSINESS)

Byline: Christian Caryl; With Akiko Kashiwagi

Japan has little tie to America's toxic securities, but its market melted down anyway, as fear ran wild.

How could the Nikkei have plunged 24 percent in the course of the past week, the steepest decline in 59 years, when the Japanese aren't really involved in the whole global mortgage mess? Unable to explain the first downward lurch on Oct. 8, when the market plummeted 9.2 percent, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso called it "frankly beyond the imagination." At the close of trading that day, 79 percent of the companies on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, including blue chips like Toyota and Sony, were trading below their book value (the total value of a company's equity divided by outstanding shares). That means shareholders theoretically would have been better off just closing down the companies and selling off their assets.

Japan has thus become perhaps the most striking victim of collateral damage in the credit crisis. Patrick Mohr, an equity strategist for Nikko Citigroup in Tokyo, cites figures showing that Japanese financial institutions account for a mere 2 percent of the $592 billion in credit-related write-offs worldwide in recent weeks, hardly reason to doubt the integrity of the system. Japanese share values last hit a comparable low back in 2003, when the then Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka tightened regulations to expose the full extent of banks' bad loans--and then pushed them to get almost $180 billion in bad loans off their books. The same banks have solid balance sheets today. As a result, says Masayuki Kubota, a senior fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments, "To see the stock valuations fall to the level we're seeing now just doesn't make sense."

The United States remains a primary market for Japanese exports, so a slowdown there translates into harder times for the Japanese. Yet until last week those fears hadn't grown into panic. Kubota says that implied volatility of options on Japan's Nikkei stock average--the "fear gauge"-- soared to levels far exceeding the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks or the Asian currency crisis in the late 1990s. "I've never seen it that high."

The hysteria was prompted, at least in part, by more bad news on the real economy. Early in the week, reports trickled out that Toyota was planning to cut its operating-profit forecast for this year by nearly ...