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How Obama's Star Could Fall.(International Edition; THE NEXT IRAQ)(United States President-Elect Barack Obama)

Newsweek International

| October 13, 2008 | Tepperman, Jonathan | COPYRIGHT 2008 Newsweek, Inc. All rights reserved. Any reuse, distribution or alteration without express written permission of Newsweek is prohibited. For permission: www.newsweek.com. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Byline: Jonathan Tepperman; with Tracy McNicoll

Barack Obama is leading the polls at home, but he's downright beloved abroad, where he's seen as a Kennedyesque star who could quickly heal the damage America's done to its image with Iraq, Guantanamo, and other missteps.

It's no small irony, then, that the foreign-policy issue Obama has emphasized most of late is Afghanistan. Arguing that it, not Iraq, is the real central front in the war on terror, Obama has promised to send in about 10,000 more troops and to strike next-door Pakistan, if top terrorists are spotted there. Yet should President Obama really follow through on such aggressive promises, Afghanistan could become an Iraq of his own--a quagmire that alienates allies and his key political base.

Consider: 40 nations now have troops in Afghanistan, but besides the United States, only Britain, Canada and a few others are seeing action, and most of those have threatened to pull out unless other NATO members carry their weight. But a U.S. troop surge would inevitably mean more casualties--making it even less likely queasy allies would risk their own. Strategist Walter Russell Mead says a U.S. surge would "definitely lead to political problems with Europe, where support for the war is ebbing." In France, two thirds of the population already wants their (nonfighting) troops brought home.

Then there's the U.S. public. Pollster Craig Charney says the war in Afghanistan has always been more popular than the one in Iraq because Afghanistan was the base for the 9/11 ...

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