Dreams Of Independence.(Point of View)(dangers of Kashmiri secession)

Secession is a worrisome precedent in international politics. In Kashmir, it would worsen the violence.

The trigger seemed benign enough. In July, the state government in Jammu and Kashmir tried to transfer land that it owned to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board, which was seeking to create shelters for the annual pilgrimage to historic Shri Amarnath shrine. The move gave Kashmiri separatists a golden opportunity to revive the anger of the Muslim majority, and with it their flagging campaign for freedom from Indian rule. Large crowds of Kashmiri Muslims defied curfews, scorned Indian security forces and marched through the streets. Once again, calls for Kashmir to secede from India resound in Srinagar.

Secession, it seems, is now in vogue, thanks to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the Russian tanks now backing South Ossetia's claim of independence from Georgia. Basques in Spain, Baluchis in Pakistan, Turkmen and Tibetans in China, and other secessionists all over the world will be watching the reactions of the international community closely. The creation of microstates such as South Ossetia is a worrisome precedent in international politics. If it proves to be contagious, it would generate a legion of geopolitical conundrums. In Kashmir, secession would only worsen the violence.

The most compelling argument for secession is extermination and genocide: if a government is killing its people, the government must be replaced. International law and custom recognizes such claims. New Delhi has used force to quell disturbances and terrorist threats. It has made many cultural faux pas, has been politically insensitive and has treated some dissidents harshly. But what is happening in Kashmir, and what has occurred in the past, falls short of genocide.

Genocide isn't the only argument for secession. A people might also rightfully secede when subject to "ethnic flooding"--loss of ancestral lands through a conscious policy of population transfers. Here again India's hands are clean. Despite demands from Hindu zealots, New Delhi has refused to dismantle constitutional provisions that prohibit non-Kashmiris from acquiring land in the state, and at no time has the government encouraged migration to Kashmir.

Secession may also be justified if a people faces massive discrimination and denial of human rights. In Kashmir, the opposite is the case: Article 370 of the Indian Constitution grants the state special political privileges; for example, non-Kashmiris cannot buy property in the state. New Delhi has undermined Article 370 over the years but has done nothing to justify secession. Kashmir may not be one of India's strongest economies, but it is not the worst. Geography, education, misgovernment, poor infrastructure and lack ...