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Nobody home.(housing market)

National Review

| July 14, 2008 | Hassett, Kevin A. | COPYRIGHT 2008 National Review, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

THE problems in the housing market continue to put downward pressure on the economy. Economist Larry Lindsey, my colleague at AEI, recently noted in The Weekly Standard that things are likely to get a lot worse before they get better. Lindsey pointed to a sobering statistic. There are currently 129 million homes in the United States, and 18.5 million are empty. Prices clearly will have to come down a lot to clear such an inventory.

It can take hundreds of thousands of dollars to build a home. How can it be that so many came to be empty?

The nearby chart plots the movement in the vacancy rates for two types of homes: those built before 2000, and those built after. The vacancy rate for homes built before 2000 has ticked up only a smidgen, to about 2 percent. That level is about the type of inventory one would expect to see in a healthy housing market. But the vacancy rate for newer homes has skyrocketed, and now stands above 10 percent.

The chart tells a simple story. As prices rose over the past decade, new homes were built in more and more questionable areas. With prices ...

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