Propensity score matching of children in kinship and nonkinship foster care: do permanency outcomes still differ?(Report)

This study compares the permanency outcomes of children in kinship foster care with a matched sample of children in nonkinship foster care in Illinois. It addresses the issue of selection bias by using propensity score matching (PSM) to balance mean differences in the characteristics of children in kinship and nonkinship foster homes. The data come from the March 1998 to September 2007 six-month files submitted by the state of Illinois to the federal Adoption and Foster Care Analysis Reporting Systems (AFCARS). A longitudinal sample of linked records for 21,914 kin children and 10,108 non-kin children was created, and a random subsample of 1,500 children in nonkinship care was matched to the kinship sample by using PSM. The permanency outcomes and placement stability of children in kin and non-kin foster care in the matched sample of 3,000 are compared with both cross-tabular and survival analysis.

Prior to matching, differences in reunification rates, combined adoption and guardianship rates, and placement stability are all significant. After matching, the differences in permanency rates disappear. Children in nonkinship foster homes still show a higher risk for initial placement disruption after matching, but there is no difference in rates of instability within a year compared with children in kinship foster homes. Implications for policy and practice are discussed.

KEY WORDS: kinship foster care; legal permanence; placement stability; propensity score matching

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According to data submitted to the federal Adoption and Foster Care Analysis Reporting Systems (AFCARS), the number of children reported living in kinship foster care has stabilized at around 24% of the foster care population after rising rapidly in the early 1990s (Administration for Children and Families [ACF], 2006; Beeman, Kim, & Bullerdick, 2000). AFCARS records showed that 124,153 children were placed in kinship foster homes in 2005 (ACE 2006). The rapid growth of kinship foster care in the 1990s has been attributed to the increased need for out-of-home care, the declining capacity of non-kin foster homes to accommodate that need, and the growing acceptance of kin as a placement resource for abused and neglected children (Beeman et al., 2000; Chipungu, Everett, Verdieck, & Jones, 1998). Policies at a state and a federal level give priority to kinship placement when these homes meet relevant child protection standards (Chipungu et al., 1998; U.S. General Accounting Office [GAO], 1999). The recent leveling off in the prevalence of children in kinship foster care reflects both a drop-off in the need for out-of-home care and the success in transitioning children from kinship foster care to permanent adoptive and guardianship homes with these families (Testa & Miller, 2005).

With the increasing acceptance and use of kinship placement, more attention has begun to be paid to the comparative outcomes for children in kinship and nonkinship foster care, especially in the area of stability and permanence (Testa, Bruhn, & Helton, in press). Different results have been reported for permanency outcomes, and they have provided grounds for either affirming or questioning the value of kin as a placement resource for abused and neglected children (Bartholet, 1999; Link, 1996).

PERMANENCY OUTCOMES OF CHILDREN IN KIN AND NON-KIN PLACEMENTS

Prior research has demonstrated the advantages of kinship foster homes with respect to placement stability. Studies consistently find that kinship placement is more stable than is nonkinship care (Beeman et al., 2000; Chipungu et al., 1998). Testa's (2001) research suggested that much of this advantage happens at the early stages of out-of-home placement and diminishes as the duration of a child's stay in the same setting lengthens.

On the other hand, concerns have been raised about the use of kinship placement because of the lower rates of legal permanence found for children in kinship foster care compared with those in nonkinship foster care. Many studies show that children in kinship foster care are less likely to achieve legal permanence, especially in the form of reunification and adoption (Barth, Courtney, Berrick, & Albert, 1994; Testa, 1997; Thornton, 1991). Research conducted in the mid-1990s, however, found that kin caregivers were more willing to adopt children in their care than previously thought, even though their reluctance to adopt was still stronger than that of non-kin caregivers (Testa, Shook, Cohen, & Woods, 1996; Testa, 2001). Furthermore, Testa's (2005a) research in Illinois suggested that the disadvantages of kinship foster homes for adoption have declined in recent years and, with the addition of subsidized guardianship as a permanency option, kinship can become an asset for attaining legal permanence.

Previous research on differences in permanency outcomes between children in kinship and nonkinship foster care is limited by the problem of selection bias. Kin are able to exercise greater control over who enters their care than are licensed foster parents who are typically expected to accept the children referred to them. Considering the differences in degree of control, it is very possible that the residual differences in permanency outcomes between children in kinship and nonkinship foster care may be due to limitations in the statistical methods used in adjusting for preexisting group differences and selection biases. Grogan-Kaylor (2001) provided evidence that some of the negative effects of kinship placement on reunification rates are the result of selection biases that may not be adequately handled by standard regression methods.

Differences in the characteristics of kin and nonkin placements, which many studies have demonstrated, make such arguments plausible. Children in kinship settings are different from children in nonkinship settings in many characteristics such as age, race, and disability (Beeman et al., 2000; Berrick, Barth, & Needell, 1994; Chipungu et al., 1998; Grogan-Kaylor, 2000). The reasons why they enter the foster care system are also dissimilar (Chipungu et al., 1998; Grogan-Kaylor, 2000). Furthermore, kinship caregivers differ from nonkinship caregivers in terms of their age, race, marital status, socioeconomic status, and region of residence (Barth et al., 1994; Berrick et al., 1994; Ehrle & Geen, 2002).

The present study approaches the problem of selection bias by using the method of propensity score matching (PSM) to balance the mean characteristics of children placed in kin and non-kin foster homes. The current study tests the following two null hypotheses with matched samples generated by PSM:

* Children initially placed in kinship foster care during their first removal episode are no less likely to achieve legal permanence through reunification, adoption, and guardianship than are children initially placed in nonkinship foster care during their first removal episode.

* Children initially placed in kinship foster care during their first removal episode are no more likely to experience placement stability than are children initially placed in nonkinship foster care during their first removal episode.

METHOD

Data

The study uses AFCARS data submitted by the state of Illinois for the 1997 to 2007 reporting periods. AFCARS is a federally mandated reporting system that collects information on all children who are in foster care or have been adopted from the care and custody of state child welfare agencies. AFCARS consists of two data files, one that holds adoption data and the other foster care data. This study uses the foster care data file.

The foster care data file has demographic information on children, birth parents, and foster parents. It also provides episode-level information such as dates of removal and discharge and case goals. Currently, states are required to submit AFCARS data to the ACF semiannually.

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