Winds Of Change.(World Affairs)(Cyclone Nargis)(Cover story)

Byline: Melinda Liu; With Jaimie Seaton In Bangkok, Tim Coone In Managua And Monica Campbellin Mexico City

Cyclone Nargis may have done more than just wreck Burma's cities. It may also spell doom for the government.

The massive storm that hit Burma on May 2 could not have come at a worse time for the generals who rule the country. As Cyclone Nargis raged toward them across the Indian Ocean, Burma's military government was busy preparing for a referendum--originally scheduled for May 10--they hoped would ratify a new constitution legalizing military rule.

In fact, the generals were so preoccupied with making sure their new charter would pass smoothly that they played down urgent warnings from India and others of the impending cyclone, according to foreign wire reports. That delay would prove fatal to legions of their subjects who were caught unawares. Now,

with roughly 17,330 square kilometers of Burma underwater and tens of thousands confirmed dead, the generals have reluctantly agreed to postpone balloting in two of the worst-hit provinces--but, incredibly, have insisted it will go as planned in the country's north.

Yet even if the vote passes, the ruthless soldiers who have ruled this Asian state since 1962 may have made their final blunder--or at least started a process that will lead to their eventual downfall. From Mexico City to Managua to the Middle Kingdom, natural disasters in the past have had a way of undermining ruthless and incompetent leaders. The process can take years. But once set in motion, the forces unleashed by a destructive natural event--and a ham-handed government response--can prove as unstoppable as an actual tsunami.

Just how badly Burma has suffered is still hard to determine, since the xenophobic and paranoid regime has accepted only a trickle of international aid and denied visas to virtually all foreign journalists. But the official count of the dead and missing already exceeded 60,000 as of this writing and was expected to grow. More than 1 million Burmese have lost their homes, and Shari Villarosa, the top U.S. diplomat in the country, warned last week that the lack of food, medicine, clean water and other basic needs could bring the death toll to 100,000. World Food Program spokesperson Paul Risley said the victims' needs were so vast that they've been "like trying to fill a bathtub with an eyedropper."