States of recession.

WHEN the economy enters recession, some regions are hit harder than others. Two things about the current episode merit especially close attention: the narrow geographic focus of the hardest times, and the uneven political distribution of the downturn.

The nearby map illustrates current economic conditions and traditional voting preferences on a state-by-state basis. Each state's color represents its partisan leaning. "Red" states tend to vote Republican. "Blue" states trend toward Democrats. "Purple" states are expected to be highly competitive in the 2008 election. I determined expected voting patterns by examining a number of different factors, including recent election results, current polling trends, and a recent paper by my American Enterprise Institute colleagues John Fortier and Tim Ryan titled "Swing States and Electoral College Strategy."

Overlaid on the states' colors are patterns that indicate whether the state is in an expansion, in a recession, or "at risk for recession," according to a recent article by Steve Cochrane of Economy.com. Large black dots represent states with expanding economies. Small black dots show contracting economies. States with horizontal lines are "at risk."

Texas, for example, is a Republican-leaning state with an expanding economy, so it is colored red with large dots. Michigan, being a swing state in recession, is purple with small dots.

The map illustrates the extent to which real-estate markets have led the downturn. California, Florida, and ...