Five years later.(AT WAR)(Iraq war)

THE horrors and disappointments of the war in Iraq should not make us forget how dangerous an Iraq with Saddam Hussein still in power would be.

One of the modern world's cruelest and most repressive dictators, Saddam remained determined to reconstitute his weapons programs. His ambition to obtain nuclear weapons would have grown all the more ardent, surely, as Iran got closer to a bomb. Five more years of sanctions--and periodic bombing--might have kept him at bay (and continued to immiserate the Iraqi people). But the sanctions were already loosening, and Saddam had become adept at cheating the system. He would have remained in power, a committed enemy of the United States, a threat to our allies, a tormentor of Iraqis, a supporter of radicalism, and a reckless gambler possessed of hegemonic ambitions in one of the world's most important regions. And, on top of all this, a friend to terrorists: Anew report by the Institute for Defense Analyses details how Saddam supported Qaeda-affiliated terror groups such as Egyptian Islamic Jihad.

It is good for us, for the region, and for Iraqis that Saddam is gone. But the good wrought by the invasion has been undercut by the botched occupation and the predations of our enemies. For many Iraqis, the American occupation has been a cataclysm. Tens of thousands have died, and 4 million have been displaced. In the annus horribilis of 2006, a civil war threatened to spin out of control. The chaos has, for the time being, discredited democracy in the region, and until the last year al-Qaeda had established direct control over portions of Iraq.

The surge pulled Iraq back from the brink. Iraqis might not be prepared for liberal democracy, but neither do they relish violence and the rule of fanatics. Across the country, they have risen to work with American forces newly committed to protecting them, bringing stability to areas long beset by sectarian warfare and controlled by extremists. Some 80,000 Sunnis have become security volunteers patrolling their neighborhoods. Realizing that the political wind is blowing against violence, Moqtada al-Sadr first declared and then extended a ceasefire. Intercepted communications from al-Qaeda constantly tell of its distressed state: Its fighters have been killed, it has been driven from one area to another, and the Sunni population has turned against it.

Across the country, violence has declined to 2005 levels, leaving Iraq a dangerous place but one that is no longer self-immolating. Top American officers fear, however, that they will not be able to reduce the violence much more without substantial political progress. There have been signs that ice is beginning to break in the legislature. De-Baathification and ...