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Potential impact of the subprime lending crisis on community banks: both good and bad possibilities loom if the credit cycle takes a downturn.(COMMUNITY BANKING)

Commercial Lending Review

| January 01, 2008 | Romaine, Nancy T. | COPYRIGHT 2008 Euromoney Institutional Investor PLC. Internal use only 10 copy limit. No further use w/o permission. Publisher@euromoneyplc.com. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

As this article was being written, the subprime mortgage lending crisis was in the news every day. The bad news was coming from mortgage banking firms, large banks with investment banking losses from subprime mortgage-backed securities and companies involved in the housing industry, which took a hit as the easy-credit era ended for prospective home buyers. Large banks are also more likely to be involved in syndicated lending and exotic investments.

A sample of the bad news:

* Washington Mutual (Wamu) announced a 75-percent drop in third-quarter net income on October 5, 2007. Wamu joined Citigroup, UBS and Merrill Lynch in reporting write-downs reflecting, among other issues, declining values in mortgage loans and securities. (1)

* The FINANCIAL TIMES reported that U.S. mortgage companies are experiencing a subprime "traffic jam" as borrowers flood servicers with pleas to avoid foreclosure. The servicers are reported to be having trouble coping with the number of delinquencies and defaults. Moody's, the rating agency, was quoted as stating that few subprime loans are being renegotiated as servicers struggle with the volume of problems. (2)

* Among the companies blaming the subprime crisis, housing slowdown and/or credit crunch for weak earnings were Bear Stearns, CarMax, FedEx, General Electric, KB Home, Lennar, Lowe's and several investment banks. (3)

* In the NEW YORK TIMES the question was asked in August, "Will this spill over into the broader economy?" (4)

* On a number of days, losses in the stock market have been attributed to concern over the subprime crisis or credit quality in general.

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