The Obama appeal: he's post-racist, but also post-American.(Barack Obama)(Cover story)

AS Republicans watched the recent Democratic debates, the mountainous scale of the problems they face glowered down on them. They were already intimidated by the steepness of the first peak--Mount Change. Amid-January Gallup poll showed that only 17 percent of Americans want to continue with President George W. Bush's policies against a staggering 79 percent who want to change them. All the candidates support "change," of course, but the voters seem to interpret the word in a strongly anti-Republican sense.

The problem only gets worse when they are asked to break down this general desire into support for specific policies. The first four they want to see are: end the war in Iraq/bring the troops home, 26 percent; health-care reform, 19 percent; fix the economy/create more jobs, 18 percent; and secure the borders/address illegal immigration, 10 percent. Three of these four top issues are natural Democratic ones, at least in the closing stages of a GOP administration. The Republican frontrunner would prefer to see the sole Republican issue, immigration, buried because he takes a Democratic view of it. Taxes and fiscal discipline--a couple of natural GOP issues--lag behind, at 7 and 5 percent respectively.

It would be an uphill climb for GOP hopefuls even if they did not have these lead weights strapped to their ankles--because the Democrats, in addition to looking like experienced climbers, seem to be enjoying the exercise. In the South Carolina debate, even former senator John Edwards put on a good show. His schtick as a blow-dried Lear raging against the elemental facts of American middle-class prosperity has worn as thin as a five-and-dime winter coat, and his angry populism lacks the saving grace of humor that Mike Huckabee brings to the same themes; but if he going--and he is--he intends to go in full ranting mode.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has reestablished herself as the frontrunner. She has done so by the skin of her teeth, and her new status may not survive the South Carolina result; but in recovering, she has shown an unexpected ability to vary her personal style without losing any of her underlying steely resolve. Her "crying game"--whether calculated or a momentary weakness--was extraordinarily successful. It made her less monotonous and more unpredictable. At the same time, she seemed the least vulnerable contender in the debates, displaying the cold sneer of command at some points and a dry wit ("well, that hurts my feelings") at others.

If nominated, she would be a strong opponent, enjoying more or less united Democratic support and media sympathy. But she remains divisive, polarizing, unappealing to independents, and thus the best Democrat the Republicans have got. That is not saying much, however, when all Democrats have an advantage over all Republicans.

CHARM OFFENSIVE

Sen. Barack Obama would plainly be a much stronger candidate in the general election, even if he is at a slight disadvantage in the primaries. In part this is the result of his personality: He is simply likeable. But this likeability goes very deep. He has a kind of cool grace in almost all situations that indicates an underlying self-control remarkable in a relative novice.