Periscope: Africa In Crisis.(Periscope)

Byline: Scott Johnson; Michael Hirsh; Tracy McNicoll; Raina Kelly; Jennie Yabroff; Jeneen Interlandi

Kenya Is A Nasty Surprise But It Is Hardly Another Rwanda

In 100 days during the spring of 1994, more than 800,000 Rwandans, mostly Tutsi, were hacked to death by Hutus. Thus when machete-wielding youths hit the streets of Kenya recently, it sparked talk of a new Rwanda. Days after presidential election results came out on Dec. 30, allegedly revealing massive fraud by the incumbent Mwai Kibaki, opposition leader Raila Odinga declared that agenocide on a grand scalea was underway.

In fact, Kenya is no Rwanda. True, thereas an ethnic element: Kibaki is from the long-dominant Kikuyu tribe, while Odinga is Luo, but the bloodshed pales in comparison. In the first two weeks of the Rwandan genocide, more than 100,000 were killed. Just over two weeks into the mayhem, even the most liberal estimates put the Kenyan death toll at less than 1,000.

Another difference: in Rwanda, the murder was systematic and mainly Hutu-on-Tutsi. Hutu extremists in government organized the killing and used state radio stations to urge ordinary people to crush the inyenzi (cockroaches)aa Hutu slur for Tutsis. And after the country exploded, Hutu radio declared it Hutusa apatriotic dutya to exterminate Tutsi neighbors. In Kenya, the violence has been sporadic, flaring up with the passion of disorganized mobs from various tribes. And the government has tried to contain it, shutting down the press after the contested election. Newspapers have avoided mentioning tribal passions, to avoid inflaming things further.

Rwanda was genocidal, not political: Hutus aimed to literally exterminate the Tutsis. In Kenya, the tensions were political first and only later descended into tribal conflict. This dynamic was clear in Eldoret, a Rift Valley town that witnessed some of the worst bloodshed. The trouble began when Odinga supporters rallied to harass and intimidate Kibakias backers; only after the looting and burning started did people rally back to their tribes. Itas vital to note that Odinga has both Luo and Kikuyu supporters. And it seems clear that if the political machine can be fixed, the fighting will stop.

To be sure, there are ugly echoes of Rwanda. Churches have been used as havens, only to become scenes of mass murder, in Kenya too. Caravans of farmers, their homes looted and burned, are fleeing to neighboring countries. Yet the differences in kind and scale remain. The world was slow to recognize Rwanda as a genocide, and still feels the guilt, but rushing to judgment in Kenya wonat help matters; in fact, it could prove destructive.