Messing With Success.(Nations to Watch)(Kenya's Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga)

Byline: Alexandra Polier

Under Kibaki, Kenya has blossomed. So why is the man responsible about to lose the election?

One look at the open sewer pouring into the river in downtown Nairobi, and it's hard to believe that this sprawling metropolis is fast becoming the economic powerhouse of East Africa. Yet over the past five years, Kenya's economy has caught fire, going from a negative growth rate in 2002 to 6 percent in 2007. The nation now boasts a well-functioning government, huge foreign investment in IT and telecommunications, and a billion-dollar tourism sector. Even the sewage problem is being addressed; an ambitious urban re-beautification program plans to return the Nairobi River Basin to the haven it was 50 years ago. It may seem like a small step, but it's a fitting metaphor for the transformation of Kenya as a whole.

Given all the good news, one might expect Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki to be coasting to victory in national elections on Dec. 27. In fact, polls predict he'll lose the vote to Raila Odinga: a two-plus-meter-tall populist better known for his purple suits and yellow Hummer than his reformist credentials. Odinga's election would underscore the fact that Kenya's renaissance, though real, has yet to reach most of its citizens. And on a deeper level, the popularity of Odinga -- who as president could undermine Kibaki's reforms -- reflects the immaturity of Kenya's voters, and their preference for tribal politics over quiet competence and a 21st-century state.

Kibaki's likely defeat would be a bitter irony in a place that has come so far so fast. His government is "investing in [Kenyans'] quality of life, in their future," says Achim Steiner, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program. Colin Bruce, country director for the World Bank, agrees, saying that Kenya is now one of sub-Saharan Africa's hottest economies, with great growth potential thanks to its "culture of entrepreneurship, broad skills base [and] choice of development model." Bruce argues that foreign investors share this optimism: "Some say that conditions hadn't been this favorable for their business in over 40 years."

Kibaki, 80, is Kenya's first democratically elected leader, having replaced the authoritarian President Daniel Arap Moi in 2002. By privatizing industry, providing free primary education, cutting overall spending, creating business incentives and investing in IT (among other things), he helped build a knowledge-based economy that is fast becoming a regional hub for outsourcing, call centers and banking. Exports are at a record high for coffee, tea and flowers, a $600 million industry. And since 2002, 1.8 million new jobs have been created and per capita income has increased from $400 to $630, according to government figures.

During the same period, thanks to an aggressive awareness campaign, HIV prevalence has dropped from 13 to 6 percent -- one of the lowest rates on the continent. "This is a very different country than it was five years ago," ...