Religiousness and fertility among European Muslims.(DATA AND PERSPECTIVES)

Based on official data on religion, national origin, and other indicators of ethnic origin, Muslim fertility in 13 European countries is higher than that for other women, but in most countries with trend data the differences are diminishing over time. Fertility varies by country of origin of immigrants. Various European survey data show that higher proportions of Muslim women are married and their commitment to traditional family values is greater than among other women. Muslim women are more religious than non-Muslim women and religiousness is directly associated with fertility. Among Muslim women, religiousness and commitment to family values are equally important for fertility, while for non-Muslim women religiousness is much less important.

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ACCORDING TO POPULAR belief, the fertility of Muslims in Europe is much higher than that of non-Muslims. This belief stems, at least in part, from the general impression of high fertility in Muslim countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. The notion of high Muslim fertility in Europe fuels concerns about Muslims' increasing immigration, growing numbers, and resistance to assimilation into European society, leading to dire predictions that Muslims are "about to take over Europe" (Lewis 2007) or that "much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries" (Steyn 2006).

This analysis first compares Muslim and non-Muslim fertility in Europe and examines how the fertility of both populations is changing over time. It then focuses on the influence of religiousness on fertility to determine whether Muslims in Europe are more religious than non-Muslims and, if so, whether this influences their fertility. Table 1 provides an overview of the Muslim population in Europe at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Of the estimated 35-45 million Muslims in Europe, around 15 million reside in Western Europe, close to 8 million in Central and South-Eastern Europe, and between 15 and 20 million in the Russian Federation. The estimates are reasonably accurate for many of the smaller countries, as well as for Germany, Britain, and the Netherlands. For other countries, including France, Spain, and Italy, there is considerable uncertainty about the estimated size of the Muslim population. The numbers of illegal immigrants in these countries, many of whom are presumed to be Muslim, are unknown. Also, statistical practices and definitions differ from one country to another so that the data in Table 1 can be considered useful only for basic orientation.

Almost all of the Muslims in Central and Eastern Europe live in the Balkans. (Kosovo, although formally part of Serbia, is listed as a country in Table 1.) This part of Europe belonged to the Ottoman Empire for many centuries, and the countries gained independence during the nineteenth century. The Muslims are mostly autochthonous populations that had converted to Islam or are of Turkish descent. The large numbers of Muslims in the Russian Federation are not immigrants. They live in areas where the Muslim faith has been prevalent for centuries: in Tatarstan, Bashkiria, the Northern Caucasus, and the Volga region.