An Army in Retreat; Abdullah Gul's ascent was expected to trigger military unrest. So why is Turkey so quiet?

Byline: Owen Matthews (With Sami Kohen in Istanbul)

You'd think turkey should be in turmoil right now. When Abdullah Gul, once a passionate Islamist, was nominated for the presidency back in April, millions of concerned citizens took to the streets to protest. The main opposition boycotted the vote in Parliament, which elects the country's presidents. And Turkey's once all-powerful military issued a strong condemnation of Gul's nomination, warning that the "core values of the republic" were under threat. "The military is saying that if necessary, they can make their voice louder, and their actions stronger," retired general Riza Kucukoglu told reporters in April.

Yet Gul is now poised to become president after all. And instead of chaos, Turkey is calm. Backed by a landslide election victory last month for his Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party (known as the AKP), the former foreign minister is now preparing to move into the presidential palace. The economy is booming, and the papers are dominated by news of the current heat wave--and speculation about how Gul's wife, Hayrunisa, will tie her controversial headscarf when she becomes First Lady. All the dire assumptions about national strife and even military intervention have come to nothing.

What happened? For one, the Turkish people chose to disregard the military's warnings and renewed the AKP's mandate with a resounding 47 percent of the vote. More important, the archsecularists in the Army, civil service and judiciary who opposed Gul's rise so fiercely seem to have accepted defeat. That is a hugely significant moment in Turkey's political culture--one that represents a milestone in the country's road to true democracy.

The key to the AKP's success since it came to power in 2002 has been to steer clear of religious issues almost completely. As a government, for instance, it has not moved to strike down Turkey's ban on the wearing of Islamic headscarves in state buildings, schools and universities--though Hayrunisa Gul did bring an unsuccessful private suit in the European Court of Human Rights against the ban. Instead, the AKP has stuck to issues like fixing the economy and reforming Turkey's laws to prepare for EU membership.

At a minimum, the controversy over Gul's rise has less to do ...