Nuclear Brinkmanship; India's finally on the verge of great-power status--unless its old-guard politicians bring it down.

Byline: Sumit Ganguly

In politics as in life, it sometimes seems no good deed goes unpunished. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has just put the finishing touches on a pact with Washington that would ratify Delhi's nuclear-weapons program and provide support for its civilian nuclear-energy program. The deal would bring India in from the cold after decades as a nuclear pariah, confirm its status as an emerging great power and seal its ever-closer bond with Washington. It's a political hat trick almost too good to be true, and pundits in the United

States are already complaining that the deal gives India everything it wants while asking little in return. Yet what has been Singh's reward? He now faces the worst political crisis of his career. His government could collapse in the coming weeks--just when it should be celebrating a crowning accomplishment.

That's thanks to two powerful spoilers on the Indian scene. One is the opposition Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, whose ally, the former Defense minister, George Fernandes, declared in Parliament a few weeks ago that were Singh a Chinese politician, his actions would have gotten him executed. The other are India's two main communist parties, members of Singh's own coalition, who have threatened to bolt from the government if the deal goes through. The left and the right share a similar complaint: that the pact would undermine India's "strategic autonomy" by forcing it to align too closely with Washington. But such rhetoric overlooks the overwhelming benefits of the deal, and the opposition more likely owes to political opportunism and outdated Indian anti- Americanism. While the sources may be petty, however, the threat is very real: India, finally poised to step into the sun, may be about to flub its big chance. The costs of failure would be profound for U.S.-India relations, Delhi's international credibility and its hopes of achieving great-power status.

It's no small irony that opposition to the deal has brought together the communists and the right-wing Hindu nationalists. Both are profoundly disingenuous. After all, it was the BJP, when in power from 1998 to 2004, that brought Washington and Delhi so close together. The BJP's current opposition can thus be explained only by base motives: its leaders are bitter at the thought that Congress will get credit for their groundwork; and they sense an opportunity to bring down their enemies.

The communists, meanwhile, look equally opportunistic, and their claims of Indian nationalism ring hollow. Though they claim the accord would make India subservient to the United States, they had no problem when India showed great favoritism toward the Soviet line through much of the cold war. More fundamentally, it's impossible to honestly believe that the deal will in any way compromise India's independence. The accord would make India a recognized member of the nuclear club--a closed circle of nations circumscribed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which India has refused to sign. Moreover, after long neglect from Washington, it would confirm India's new status as a global player. Such standing has long been the dream of India's policymakers; achieving it would enhance, not limit, India's strategic autonomy.

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