The future really is now: forecaster Paul Saffo explains how to recognize it when you see it.(Q & A)(Interview)

"Silicon Valley is littered with the corpses of companies who mistook a clear view for a short distance," says Paul Saffo in this month's Harvard Business Review. Even when you see a change coming, it's difficult to estimate how quickly it will arrive, Saffo says, but understanding forecasting can help you turn uncertainty into opportunity. Saffo (www.saffo.com), a veteran forecaster who explores the impact of long-term technological change on society, shared some of the tricks of the trade with Kathleen Melymuka.

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What is forecasting, and how does it differ from predicting? Predicting is about certainty, and forecasting is about appreciating uncertainty. Forecasting gives a context for decision-makers to act in the face of uncertainty. In the business world, uncertainty is our friend, because uncertainty is opportunity.

Why should a CIO care about forecasting? Forecasting is more important than ever for CIOs today because the CIO job function is central to enabling the corporate strategy, and the underlying tools that CIOs use are changing …