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THE economics literature has demonstrated that taxing consumption is preferable to taxing income. In a recent review of the literature that I coauthored with Berkeley economist Alan Auerbach, we found that a wholesale switch to a consumption tax would increase real GDP by about 10 percent over ten years. Put differently, GDP today may be about 10 percent lower than it would have been if we had adopted a consumption tax ten years ago. Accordingly, it is urgent that the United States move toward a consumption tax as soon as possible.
Consumption taxes come in many forms, but they have one thing in common: They impose taxes when income is consumed, but not when it is saved. This rewards savings, and spurs economic growth. The most common type of consumption tax worldwide is the Value Added Tax, or VAT. The VAT is employed by many countries around the world, and is compulsory in the EU.
As the accompanying chart indicates, European countries that rely on VATs have tended to increase them over time. The average VAT revenue in Europe increased from about 6.9 percent of GDP in 1995 to about 8 percent of GDP in 2005. Currently, standard VAT rates range from 15 to 25 percent.
An optimist might say that this increasing reliance on the VAT is a good thing, a form of gradual tax reform. Wholesale adoption ...